We consider the latest exchange rate forecasts issued by analysts Emmanuel Ng at OCBC Bank.
Latest spot exchange rates:
Before looking at the latest short-term exchange rate forecasts we take a look at the spot markets for reference"
The Euro Dollar exchange rate is at 1.3189.
The US Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate is at 9949.
The Australian Dollar to US Dollar exchange rate is at 0.9201.
The British Pound Sterling to US Dollar exchange rate is at 1.5672.
Be aware: The above quotes are taken from the wholesale spot markets. Your bank will likely affix a discretionary spread to the figures when passing on a retail rate. However, an independent FX provider will guarantee to undercut your bank's offer, thus delivering more currency. Please learn more here.
Euro Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast
Ng has the following forecast and update to issue on EUR/USD:
"Despite the disappointing US labor market numbers, the topside resistance levels at the 55-day MA (1.3189) and then at 1.3200 may prove instrumental in determining near term directionality for the EUR-USD.
"On the CFTC front, net speculative EUR longs dipped in the latest week but a concerted breakout past these two key levels may be required to neutralize the somewhat heavy tone for the pair."
US Dollar to Japanese Yen Exchange Rate Forecast
Ng has today issued the following Japanese Yen exchange rate forecast for the short-term timeframe:
"The 100.00 level may prove a hard habit to break for the USD-JPY in the near term with USD-bullishness defused in the near term but improved risk appetite in Asia putting a floor on dips.
"On the CFTC front, net speculative JPY shorts increased (almost imperceptibly) and if the Chinese data flow continues to be support for risk appetite, a meaningful test of the century mark cannot be discounted."
Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast
Turning to the Australian Dollar outlook, Ng says:
"The AUD-USD may tilt slightly higher in the near term on a confluence of a softer broad dollar and potentially supportive sentiment towards the China economic landscape. On the CFTC front, net speculative AUD shorts increased ever so slightly in the latest week but the pair may look to challenge the 0.9230/35 resistance towards 0.928, while initial support is expected towards the 55-day MA (0.9113)."
British Pound Sterling vs US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast
Turning to the British Pound Sterling forecast, Ng says:
"The GBP-USD may attempt to ride the vulnerable dollar higher in the near term with the pair still hovering above the 1.5600 floor.
"On the CFTC front, net speculative GBP shorts increased in the latest week but note that this data pre-dated the BOE and the US labor market numbers last week, and a near term test towards the 1.5700 handle cannot be discounted.
"Meanwhile, sub-1.5600, the 200-day MA (1.5494) may be expected to provide a good floor on dips."