The Canadian dollar (Currency:CAD) is looking rather frail as we head towards the US session. "Further signals of slowing global activity—with another softer Chinese PMI and a sharply wider Australian trade deficit—fuelled a typical risk-off session in Asia. And while we’ve seen a decent retrace of those moves in the European session, risk currencies—including the CAD—are on net still lower ahead of the North American open," says Shaun Osborne at TD Securities.
The pound Canadian dollar exchange rate is 0.09 pct higher than at last night's closing level, we see GBP/CAD at 1.5895 at 13:00 in London.
The euro Canadian dollar exchange rate is 0.12 pct higher at 1.2733.
The US dollar to Canadian dollar rate is 0.23 pct up at 0.9865. Please note these are quotes from the spot market. For the best possible retail quote available please use our currency quote service here.
"It is also worth keeping in mind that speculative positions in the CAD have been at a record net long levels for the past three weeks, so progressive signals of CAD pressure should unwind some of those trades and add to USD/CAD’s lift. A more rapid squeeze on those long positions is not out of the question either," says Osborne.
On the data front today, there is not too much out of North America, but US releases could get at least a small reaction from USD/CAD.
The ADP employment report at 8:15AM and the ISM non-manufacturing index at 10:00AM are the highlights, with likely more attention paid to the labour figure as the market hones expectations for non-farm payrolls on Friday.
"Our slightly above-consensus expectations for that figure imply a mild benefit to the USD," says Osborne.
That said, the FX space could find much bigger influences today.
Recently more negative headlines out of Europe—suggesting Spain’s aid request is more distant than expected—and signals of stronger headwinds for commodities mean risk aversion could extend a little longer.